LIBYA: SOWING NEW SEEDS OF INSTABILITY
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today we turn the spotlight on Libya, where the Tobruk Parliament’s move to nominate a new prime minister has reopened divisions between rival factions, raising fears of renewed instability in the fragile country.
Libya seems to be sliding deeper into political chaos as on February 10th, 2022, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) announced its decision to replace Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah with Fathi Bashaga. A well-known Misratan politician and a powerful figure in western Libya, Bashaga previously served as Minister of Interior in the Government of National Accord (GNA). The Eastern-based Parliament’s decision came when Libya was already faced with political limbo, after failing to hold national elections on December 24th that were intended to start a process of political stabilization. The appointment was directly supported by the HoR’s Speaker, Aguila Saleh, and General Khalifa Haftar, even though they were both on different sides than Bashaga’s during the civil war. In contrast, the incumbent Prime Minister Dbeibah has persistently refused Bashaga’s nomination, after surviving an assassination attempt only hours before the vote. The decision was also opposed by Pro-Dbeibah militias that rapidly rallied into the Libyan capital. As Bashaga initiated the consultations to form a new government following the vote, Dbeibah and Saleh presented two different roadmaps for Libya’s political transition. By setting two distinct dates for the country’s long-awaited elections, these conflicting roadmaps introduce an additional layer of complexity in Libya’s political landscape. In the face of these developments, the UN has announced that it will continue to support Dbeibah as Libya’s interim Prime Minister, while reiterating the need for an inclusive political process. Nevertheless, the events of this past week might result in the establishment of two opposing administrations. This development risks further jeopardising Libya’s transition, bringing it back to a time where it served as a battleground for two rivalling governments. Once again, the threat of yet another spiral of violence looms over Libya.
Experts from the ISPI MED network react to the appointment of a second, concurrent Prime Minister in Libya, a move that could fuel division and derail the United Nations-led efforts to reconcile the fragile country.
