IRAN, RUSSIA AND THE JCPOA: IS A YEAR OF NEGOTIATIONS AT RISK?

Marzo 19, 2022

IRAN, RUSSIA AND THE JCPOA: IS A YEAR OF NEGOTIATIONS AT RISK?

The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on the Iran nuclear talks, focusing on the consequences of the last-minute requests raised by Russia in this crucial moment of the negotiations.

The implications of the war in Ukraine go well beyond Europe. In the Middle East, the Iran nuclear talks may suffer from the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. After eleven months, the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal were challenged by a last-minute Russian demand. In an unexpected move, the Kremlin requested sweeping guarantees that its trade with Iran would not be affected by the sanctions imposed in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. Although a few issues remained to be addressed, a new agreement seemed to be just around the corner. By connecting the Iran deal with the Ukraine war, the Russian government risked casting a shadow over the negotiations. The US and its European allies opposed Russian requests, and the talks were suspended until further notice. This development was met with caution by Tehran, and Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, visited Moscow to find a possible way out. The situation remains unclear, but Abdollahian’s visit seems to have brought some positive results, with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergej Lavrov, declaring that the Kremlin has received “written guarantees” by Washington for its demands. At this stage, all actors involved seem to be interested in a swift resumption of the talks. The lifting of the sanctions on Iran would give momentum to its battered economy, and the resumption of Iranian oil exports could contribute to alleviating the dire consequences of the global energy crisis.