TUNISIA: ELECTION DAY IN A DEMOCRACY ADRIFT

Dicembre 16, 2022

TUNISIA: ELECTION DAY IN A DEMOCRACY ADRIFT

The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we place the spotlight upon Tunisia’s upcoming legislative elections, focusing on the country’s current domestic affairs and foreign relations.

On December 17, Tunisians will head to the polls and elect the lower house of parliament, the Assembly of the Representatives of the People (ARP). These are the first legislative elections since President Kais Saïed suspended and later dissolved the parliament on July 25, 2021, and March 30, 2022, respectively. The vote is meant to be the culmination of the roadmap unveiled by the President in December 2021, coming soon after the adoption by referendum of the controversial new constitution on July 25, 2022. The national charter has changed the country’s political structure from one where power was shared between parliament and the President to a system where the head of state now has significant control over the legislative branch with fewer checks and balances. Following the amendments to the 2014 electoral law introduced by Saïed in mid-September, the 161 members of parliament (instead of the previous 217) will be elected directly through a two-round majoritarian system. Under the new regulations, voters will choose candidates for the ARP as individuals rather than from a single-party list, as was the case in the past. While political parties will be allowed to run in the elections, the electoral law will no longer afford them the privileged position previously enjoyed under the former list-based system. In fact, the new rules have been heavily criticized by several political entities, which have called for a boycott of the election, as they consider these rules a means to exclude them from public life and from the decision-making process. Aside from the boycott, a dull atmosphere has shrouded the electoral campaign, and, given the general apathy growing towards politics, a low turnout seems likely. As events unfold, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to greenlight a $1.9bn four-year programme in the next few weeks after a staff-level agreement was reached in October with the Tunisian authorities. Though this represents a significant step forward for the country, which continues to face a socioeconomic and financial crisis, the deal alone might not be enough to pull Tunisia out of its current predicament without the labour union UGTT’s backing of the reform package. In regard to foreign policy, the election of a new parliament devoid of its prerogatives will not entail any significant change to Tunisia’s diplomacy with its northern African neighbours.

Experts from the ISPI MED network react to the latest political and economic developments in Tunisia, with a look at the broader regional context.